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The Ashes could provide a reason to cheer, but this series will also see the Australian team host a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Team Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test team being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have continued performing. Any side knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, change is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is not the place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, coming around the bend, and England ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.