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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.